Girona 0-1 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Atletico Madrid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Girona welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 March 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atletico Madrid — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Madrid's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atletico Madrid are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Girona, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Atletico Madrid winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Atletico Madrid trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 75% and Atletico Madrid 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 58% | Atletico Madrid 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.17 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.222 / defence 1.294 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.110 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 0.964. Atletico Madrid's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 24 Girona games / 62 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 32% | Draw 26% | Atletico Madrid 42%. Fair-value odds: Girona 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Atletico Madrid 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Girona 80% | Atletico Madrid 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Monday 13 Mar 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 32% | Draw 26% | Atletico Madrid 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Girona 1.17 / Atletico Madrid 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.222 / def 1.294 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.110 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.360 / away 0.964 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Atletico Madrid xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Girona vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 13 March 2023 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Girona 0 - 1 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Girona vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Girona vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 32% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Girona and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Atletico Madrid?
Record (1 meetings): Girona 0W | Draws 0 | Atletico Madrid 1W.
What form are Girona and Atletico Madrid in?
Girona (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Girona's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Atletico Madrid's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
32%
3.14
26%
3.78
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Girona xG
Total xG
2.56
1.38
Atletico Madrid xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.55
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Girona and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Girona and 1.38 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Girona have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 8W 6D 10L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid's form line: 13W 6D 5L from 24 games, 1.88 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Girona.
Venue Form
On home soil, Girona have posted 1.75 PPG from 12 outings (6W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Girona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 7W 3D 2L from 12 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.58 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 8W 6D 10L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 13W 6D 5L in their last 24 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.75 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Girona or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 4% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Atletico Madrid won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Girona
0
Draws
7
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Atletico Madrid?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 1, Atletico Madrid have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atletico Madrid 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Atletico Madrid see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 75%, Atletico Madrid 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Girona) and 25% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Atletico Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Girona's games and 42% of Atletico Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Girona's recent games and 25% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Girona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Girona 0-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.17 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.38 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Girona fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.22 / defence 1.29 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.11 / defence 0.71, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 32% | Draw 26% | Atletico Madrid 42%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 58%, Atletico Madrid 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.