Getafe 0-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Coliseum plays host to Getafe versus Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Getafe have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe at Coliseum this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Getafe, 1.00 for Sevilla — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Getafe 3W, Sevilla 5W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Getafe winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Getafe half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Sevilla half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 40% versus Sevilla 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Getafe 34% | Sevilla 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.23 xG and Sevilla 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.676 / defence 0.869 | Sevilla attack 0.959 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.143. Getafe's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Getafe games / 62 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 41% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 27%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Sevilla 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Getafe 40% | Sevilla 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Coliseum • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 41% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Getafe 1.23 / Sevilla 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.676 / def 0.869 | Sevilla attack 0.959 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Getafe (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sevilla xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Sevilla kick off?
Getafe vs Sevilla kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Sevilla?
Getafe 0 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Getafe vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Sevilla part of?
Getafe vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 41% chance of winning, Sevilla a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Getafe and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Sevilla?
Record (9 meetings): Getafe 3W | Draws 1 | Sevilla 5W.
What form are Getafe and Sevilla in?
Getafe (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Sevilla (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Getafe's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Sevilla's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.96x) against Getafe's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.15
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.19
0.95
Sevilla xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Getafe and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Getafe and 0.95 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Getafe have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 19W 14D 29L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla's form line: 17W 16D 29L from 62 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Getafe against 1.08 for Sevilla. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Getafe have posted 1.10 PPG from 30 outings (8W 9D 13L).
On the road, Sevilla have gone 7W 7D 16L from 30 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Getafe are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.18 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 62 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 19W 14D 29L in their last 62 games (1.15 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 17W 16D 29L in their last 62 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Sevilla away?
Getafe's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.10 PPG; Sevilla away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Getafe won 0-3 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Getafe
1
Draws
6
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Getafe have won 3, Sevilla have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Getafe 0-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Getafe see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 47%, Sevilla 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Getafe) and 57% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Getafe have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Getafe's recent matches and 60% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Getafe's recent games and 57% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Sevilla tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sevilla defy the odds to beat Getafe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Getafe 0-1 at Coliseum, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.23 xG and Sevilla 0.95 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Getafe fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.68 / defence 0.87 against Sevilla attack 0.96 / defence 1.20, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 41% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 27%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Sevilla win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 34%, Sevilla 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.15 PPG, Sevilla 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Sevilla (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.