Getafe 2-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Getafe at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Getafe vs Granada CF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Getafe host Granada CF at Estadio Coliseum in La Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 29 January 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Getafe stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Estadio Coliseum this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Coliseum. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Getafe are significantly better at Estadio Coliseum than their overall form suggests.
Granada CF — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Getafe are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Getafe, 0 for Granada CF and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Getafe trading profile (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Granada CF trading profile (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 48% versus Granada CF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Getafe 48% | Granada CF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.45 xG and Granada CF 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.815 / defence 0.876 | Granada CF attack 0.672 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.173. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Getafe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Getafe games / 21 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 54% | Draw 29% | Granada CF 17%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Granada CF 5.88. Getafe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Getafe 40% | Granada CF 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Monday 29 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 54% | Draw 29% | Granada CF 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Getafe 1.45 / Granada CF 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.815 / def 0.876 | Granada CF attack 0.672 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Getafe (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Granada CF xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Granada CF kick off?
Getafe vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 29 January 2024 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Granada CF?
Getafe 2 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Getafe vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Granada CF part of?
Getafe vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 54% chance of winning, Granada CF a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Getafe and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Granada CF?
Record (3 meetings): Getafe 1W | Draws 2 | Granada CF 0W.
What form are Getafe and Granada CF in?
Getafe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Granada CF (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Getafe's attack at 0.81x the league average against Granada CF's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Getafe's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
54%
1.85
29%
3.39
17%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.14
0.69
Granada CF xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
6.06
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
4%
25.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 11.8 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Getafe and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Getafe and 0.69 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Getafe come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 9D 6L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Granada CF sit at 0.52 PPG from 21 outings (2W 5D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Granada CF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Getafe's home form reads 5W 3D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Getafe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Granada CF have taken 0.11 points per game from 9 outings (0W 1D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Granada CF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Getafe are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.05 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 6W 9D 6L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 2W 5D 14L in their last 21 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Granada CF away?
Getafe's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 2.00 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.11 PPG.
Have Getafe or Granada CF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Granada CF in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Getafe and Granada CF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Getafe's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Getafe
2
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Getafe have won 2, Granada CF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2024, when Getafe 2-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Granada CF?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Getafe see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Getafe 33% BTTS, Granada CF 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Getafe and 33% for Granada CF.
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 33% of games; Granada CF in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Getafe's recent matches and 33% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Getafe's recent games and 33% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Granada CF tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Getafe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Granada CF 2-0 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.45 xG and Granada CF 0.69 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.81 / defence 0.88 against Granada CF attack 0.67 / defence 1.30, drawn from 58/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 54% | Draw 29% | Granada CF 17%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 48%, Granada CF 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Granada CF's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Getafe arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.52. Form held, and they took the win. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.