Getafe 0-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Getafe and Cadiz meet at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez in La Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Getafe have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez this season.
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Getafe, 1.00 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Getafe 1W, Cadiz 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Getafe — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 40% versus Cadiz 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 36% | Cadiz 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.58 xG and Cadiz 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.877 / defence 1.119 | Cadiz attack 0.795 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.133. Cadiz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Getafe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Getafe games / 50 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 51% | Draw 25% | Cadiz 24%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Cadiz 4.17. Getafe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Getafe at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Getafe 40% | Cadiz 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 51% | Draw 25% | Cadiz 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Getafe 1.58 / Cadiz 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.877 / def 1.119 | Cadiz attack 0.795 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Getafe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Cadiz xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Cadiz kick off?
Getafe vs Cadiz kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Cadiz?
Getafe 0 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Getafe vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What competition is Getafe vs Cadiz part of?
Getafe vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 51% chance of winning, Cadiz a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Getafe and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Cadiz?
Record (2 meetings): Getafe 1W | Draws 1 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Getafe and Cadiz in?
Getafe (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Cadiz (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Getafe's attack rating (0.88) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.80x) against Getafe's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
51%
1.98
25%
3.96
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.58
1.01
Cadiz xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
5%
19.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Getafe and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Getafe and 1.01 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Getafe have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 11W 19D 20L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz's form line: 10W 19D 21L from 50 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Getafe against 0.98 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Getafe have posted 1.38 PPG from 24 outings (8W 9D 7L).
On the road, Cadiz have gone 6W 7D 11L from 24 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Getafe are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.86 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 11W 19D 20L in their last 50 games (1.04 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 10W 19D 21L in their last 50 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Cadiz away?
Getafe's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.38 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Getafe or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cadiz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Getafe won 4-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Getafe
3
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Getafe have won 2, Cadiz have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Cadiz 1-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Cadiz?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Getafe see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 38%, Cadiz 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Getafe) and 42% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Cadiz in 33%; Getafe have failed to score in 42% of games; Cadiz in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Getafe's recent matches and 42% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Getafe's recent games and 42% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Cadiz tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Getafe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Regular Season - 13, as Getafe and Cadiz drew 0-0 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.58 xG and Cadiz 1.01 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Getafe fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Cadiz landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against Cadiz attack 0.80 / defence 1.27, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 51% | Draw 25% | Cadiz 24%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 36%, Cadiz 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cadiz's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.04 PPG, Cadiz 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.