Getafe 2-2 Alaves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Getafe at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Getafe vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Coliseum Alfonso Pérez plays host to Getafe versus Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Getafe (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Alaves have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Getafe's favour (1.60 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Getafe, 0 for Alaves and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Getafe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 36% versus Alaves 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 36% | Alaves 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 2.27 xG and Alaves 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 1.169 / defence 0.973 | Alaves attack 0.678 / defence 1.723. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.163. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.723 — this is suppressing Getafe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Getafe games / 25 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 70% | Draw 19% | Alaves 10%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Alaves 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Getafe (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Getafe 40% | Alaves 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 70% | Draw 19% | Alaves 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 49% | xG Getafe 2.27 / Alaves 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 1.169 / def 0.973 | Alaves attack 0.678 / def 1.723 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Getafe (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Alaves xG
49%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Alaves kick off?
Getafe vs Alaves kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Alaves?
Getafe 2 - 2 Alaves.
Where is Getafe vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What competition is Getafe vs Alaves part of?
Getafe vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 70% chance of winning, Alaves a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Getafe and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Alaves?
Record (1 meetings): Getafe 0W | Draws 1 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Getafe and Alaves in?
Getafe (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Alaves (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Getafe's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Alaves's defensive record (1.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.27. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.68x) against Getafe's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
70%
1.42
19%
5.16
10%
9.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Getafe xG
Total xG
3.04
0.77
Alaves xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
9.88
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
10%
9.70
Win to Nil
33%
3.05
1%
95.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Getafe and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Getafe and 0.77 for Alaves, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Getafe's recent record stands at 6W 8D 11L from 25 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alaves, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 15L across 25 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Getafe against 0.80 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Getafe have managed 6W 2D 4L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Getafe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Alaves's away record stands at 1W 2D 9L across 12 trips, a 0.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Getafe are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.76 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 25 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Alaves in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 games (1.04 PPG), while Alaves have gone 5W 5D 15L in their last 25 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Alaves away?
Getafe's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.67 PPG; Alaves away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Getafe or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Alaves in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Getafe
3
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Getafe have won 4, Alaves have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Alaves 0-2 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Alaves?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Getafe see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 33%, Alaves 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Getafe) and 58% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 33% of games; Alaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Getafe's recent matches and 42% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Getafe's recent games and 58% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Alaves tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Alaves in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Getafe and Alaves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Regular Season - 26, as Getafe and Alaves drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 2.27 xG and Alaves 0.77 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alaves outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 1.17 / defence 0.97 against Alaves attack 0.68 / defence 1.72, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 70% | Draw 19% | Alaves 10%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 36%, Alaves 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Alaves's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.04 PPG, Alaves 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Getafe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.