Celta Vigo 1-0 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Betis at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Real Betis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Celta Vigo host Real Betis at Abanca-Balaídos in La Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Celta Vigo — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Celta Vigo have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Celta Vigo's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Abanca-Balaídos this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Betis have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Real Betis have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Betis away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Real Betis — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Celta Vigo have won 1, Real Betis 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Celta Vigo trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Real Betis trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 39% versus Real Betis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 41% | Real Betis 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.43 xG and Real Betis 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.181 / defence 1.134 | Real Betis attack 1.067 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.227. Data: 44 Celta Vigo games / 44 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 37% | Draw 25% | Real Betis 39%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Real Betis 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Betis at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 50% | Real Betis 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 37% | Draw 25% | Real Betis 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Celta Vigo 1.43 / Real Betis 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.181 / def 1.134 | Real Betis attack 1.067 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Real Betis xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Real Betis kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Celta Vigo 1 - 0 Real Betis.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Real Betis part of?
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 37% chance of winning, Real Betis a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Celta Vigo and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Real Betis?
Record (2 meetings): Celta Vigo 1W | Draws 1 | Real Betis 0W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Real Betis in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Real Betis (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Celta Vigo's attack rating (1.18) and Real Betis's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
37%
2.74
25%
4.05
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.92
1.48
Real Betis xG
2.74
37%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.06
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.48 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Celta Vigo have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 14W 11D 19L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Betis's form line: 24W 8D 12L from 44 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Real Betis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Real Betis are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Celta Vigo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Celta Vigo have posted 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L).
On the road, Real Betis have gone 10W 6D 5L from 21 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.64 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Real Betis in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Real Betis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 24W 8D 12L in their last 44 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Real Betis away?
Real Betis's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.38 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Real Betis in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Real Betis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Celta Vigo
4
Draws
1
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Real Betis?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 5, Real Betis have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Real Betis 1-1 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Real Betis?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 48%, Real Betis 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Celta Vigo) and 57% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Real Betis in 38%; Real Betis in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 52% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 57% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Real Betis tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Celta Vigo defy the odds to beat Real Betis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Real Betis 1-0 at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.43 xG and Real Betis 1.48 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Real Betis landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.18 / defence 1.13 against Real Betis attack 1.07 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 37% | Draw 25% | Real Betis 39%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 41%, Real Betis 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Real Betis's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Celta Vigo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.