Cadiz 0-3 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Real Madrid at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Real Madrid encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Cadiz host Real Madrid at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 26 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Cadiz — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Cadiz's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cadiz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Real Madrid have recorded 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Real Madrid's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Madrid are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Cadiz, 2 for Real Madrid and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Cadiz 0–2 Real Madrid — a Real Madrid win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Cadiz trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Real Madrid trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 36% versus Real Madrid 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 30% | Real Madrid 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cadiz surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Real Madrid have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.99 xG and Real Madrid 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.867 / defence 0.898 | Real Madrid attack 1.204 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.195. Real Madrid bring a tight defence (rating 0.749, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Cadiz's projected output down. Real Madrid have an above-average attack rating of 1.204, which lifts their away xG to 1.29. Data: built from Cadiz's last 50 games and Real Madrid's last 51.

Result probabilities: Cadiz 27% | Draw 31% | Real Madrid 42%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 3.70 | Draw 3.24 | Real Madrid 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Madrid at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cadiz's last 10 home games and Real Madrid's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cadiz 40% (last 10 home games) | Real Madrid 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights