Cadiz 1-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cadiz and Getafe meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cadiz's home record at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla: 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Getafe (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Getafe away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Cadiz, 1.00 for Getafe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Cadiz 0W, Getafe 2W, 3D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Getafe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cadiz — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Getafe — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 38% versus Getafe 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 28% | Getafe 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.10 xG and Getafe 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.742 / defence 0.971 | Getafe attack 1.007 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.124. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 72 Cadiz games / 72 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 35% | Draw 29% | Getafe 35%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Getafe 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 40% | Getafe 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 35% | Draw 29% | Getafe 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Cadiz 1.10 / Getafe 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.742 / def 0.971 | Getafe attack 1.007 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Getafe xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Getafe kick off?
Cadiz vs Getafe kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Getafe?
Cadiz 1 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Cadiz vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Getafe part of?
Cadiz vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 35% chance of winning, Getafe a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cadiz and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Getafe?
Record (5 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 3 | Getafe 2W.
What form are Cadiz and Getafe in?
Cadiz (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Getafe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.74x the league average against Getafe's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (1.01x) against Cadiz's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
35%
2.82
29%
3.43
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.20
1.10
Getafe xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.10 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cadiz come into this having played 72 games, going 14W 26D 32L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Getafe sit at 1.18 PPG from 72 outings (20W 25D 27L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Cadiz against 1.18 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cadiz's home form reads 11W 14D 11L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Getafe have taken 0.81 points per game from 36 outings (5W 14D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 1.04 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 72 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Getafe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Getafe in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 14W 26D 32L in their last 72 games (0.94 PPG), while Getafe have gone 20W 25D 27L in their last 72 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Getafe away?
Cadiz's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.31 PPG; Getafe away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Getafe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Getafe won 4-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
3
Draws
2
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Getafe?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Getafe have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Cadiz 1-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 36%, Getafe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Cadiz) and 44% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 42% of games; Getafe in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cadiz's recent matches and 50% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Cadiz's recent games and 44% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Getafe tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Getafe in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cadiz edge out Getafe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Getafe 1-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.10 xG and Getafe 1.10 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against Getafe attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 35% | Draw 29% | Getafe 35%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 28%, Getafe 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Getafe's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 0.94 PPG, Getafe 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.