Cadiz 0-2 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Cadiz take on Alaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cadiz and Alaves meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 4D 4L from 9 games (0.78 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 2L across 5 games at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Alaves (all games): 1W 0D 7L across 8 La Liga outings this term — 0.38 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 12% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.78 PPG for Cadiz against 0.38 for Alaves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Cadiz 50% | Alaves 12%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 38% | Alaves 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.85 xG and Alaves 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.672 / defence 1.163 | Alaves attack 0.590 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.004 / away 0.926. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Cadiz games / 8 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 37% | Draw 39% | Alaves 24%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.70 | Draw 2.56 | Alaves 4.17. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.49. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.49 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Alaves's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 19% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 28% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 40% | Alaves 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 37% | Draw 39% | Alaves 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 28% | xG Cadiz 0.85 / Alaves 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.672 / def 1.163 | Alaves attack 0.590 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.004 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Alaves xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Alaves kick off?
Cadiz vs Alaves kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Alaves?
Cadiz 0 - 2 Alaves.
Where is Cadiz vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Alaves part of?
Cadiz vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 37% chance of winning, Alaves a 24% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Cadiz and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Alaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cadiz and Alaves in?
Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.44 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Alaves (all comps): 1W-0D-7L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Alaves's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.59x) against Cadiz's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.70
39%
2.58
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Cadiz xG
Total xG
1.49
0.64
Alaves xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.56
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.6 | 14.3 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.2%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Cadiz and 0.64 for Alaves, a combined total of 1.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Cadiz have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 1W 3D 4L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alaves's form line: 1W 0D 7L from 8 games, 0.38 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Cadiz against 0.38 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Alaves have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.25 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves in 12%.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Alaves in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Alaves have gone 1W 0D 7L in their last 8 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Alaves away?
Cadiz's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.67 PPG; Alaves away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cadiz
0
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Alaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 2, Alaves have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2024, when Alaves 1-0 Cadiz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Cadiz) and 0% (Alaves) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Cadiz and 33% for Alaves.
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 100% of games; Alaves in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Cadiz's recent matches and 0% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Cadiz's recent games and 33% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Alaves tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Alaves in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alaves cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Cadiz 0-2 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.85 xG and Alaves 0.64 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cadiz fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Alaves outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.67 / defence 1.16 against Alaves attack 0.59 / defence 1.26, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 37% | Draw 39% | Alaves 24%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Alaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 38%, Alaves 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alaves's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 0.75 PPG, Alaves 0.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Cadiz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.