Athletic Club 1-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Athletic Club at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Alaves travel to San Mamés Barria to take on Athletic Club. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 October 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Athletic Club stand at 2W 4D 1L from 7 La Liga matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 0.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.57 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Athletic Club have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Athletic Club at San Mamés Barria this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have recorded 1W 0D 5L from 6 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Athletic Club carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.93 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.43 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Athletic Club trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Alaves trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Athletic Club 50% | Alaves 17%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Athletic Club 17% | Alaves 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.33 xG and Alaves 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 0.956 / defence 1.190 | Alaves attack 0.618 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.073. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Athletic Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Athletic Club games / 6 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 47% | Draw 34% | Alaves 19%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | Alaves 5.26. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Athletic Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 67% | Alaves 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 47% | Draw 34% | Alaves 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Athletic Club 1.33 / Alaves 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 0.956 / def 1.190 | Alaves attack 0.618 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Alaves xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Alaves kick off?
Athletic Club vs Alaves kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Athletic Club 1 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Athletic Club vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Alaves part of?
Athletic Club vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 47% chance of winning, Alaves a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Athletic Club and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Alaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Athletic Club and Alaves in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 0.57 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Alaves (all comps): 1W-0D-5L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Athletic Club's attack at 0.96x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
47%
2.14
34%
2.94
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.12
0.79
Alaves xG
2.14
47%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
5%
19.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.79 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Athletic Club come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 3D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Athletic Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 0.50 PPG from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Athletic Club carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Athletic Club are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.33 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves in 17%.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Alaves in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Alaves have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Have Athletic Club or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Alaves in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Athletic Club's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Athletic Club
2
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 5, Alaves have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Alaves 2-4 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Alaves?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Alaves see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Athletic Club 50% BTTS, Alaves 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Athletic Club and 33% for Alaves.
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alaves in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 17% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Athletic Club's recent games and 33% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Athletic Club edge out Alaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Alaves 1-0 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.33 xG and Alaves 0.79 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.96 / defence 1.19 against Alaves attack 0.62 / defence 1.34, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 47% | Draw 34% | Alaves 19%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 17%, Alaves 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alaves's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Alaves conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.