Almeria 0-2 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almeria at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almeria vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Villarreal make the trip to Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos to face Almeria in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Almeria (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria's home record at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos: 6W 1D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Almeria are significantly better at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos than their overall form suggests.
Villarreal's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Villarreal have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Almeria against 1.60 for Villarreal. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almeria lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Villarreal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Almeria — key trading statistics (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Villarreal — key trading statistics (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 61% versus Villarreal 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 52% | Villarreal 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.88 xG and Villarreal 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 1.140 / defence 1.146 | Villarreal attack 1.010 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 0.994. Villarreal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Almeria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Almeria games / 61 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 54% | Draw 22% | Villarreal 23%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Villarreal 4.35. Almeria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almeria are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almeria if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Almeria 60% | Villarreal 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 54% | Draw 22% | Villarreal 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Almeria 1.88 / Villarreal 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 1.140 / def 1.146 | Villarreal attack 1.010 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.372 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Almeria (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Villarreal xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Villarreal kick off?
Almeria vs Villarreal kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Villarreal?
Almeria 0 - 2 Villarreal.
Where is Almeria vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Villarreal part of?
Almeria vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 54% chance of winning, Villarreal a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Almeria and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Villarreal?
Record (1 meetings): Almeria 0W | Draws 0 | Villarreal 1W.
What form are Almeria and Villarreal in?
Almeria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Almeria's attack rating (1.14) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (1.01x) against Almeria's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
54%
1.84
22%
4.45
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Almeria xG
Total xG
3.03
1.15
Villarreal xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
15%
6.56
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
4%
28.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Almeria and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Almeria and 1.15 for Villarreal, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almeria come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 4D 12L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Villarreal sit at 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Almeria against 1.48 for Villarreal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Almeria's home form reads 7W 1D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Villarreal have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Villarreal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almeria are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.13 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 7W 4D 12L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 10W 4D 9L in their last 23 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Villarreal away?
Almeria's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.83 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Almeria or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Villarreal in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almeria
0
Draws
4
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Villarreal?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 0, Villarreal have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Almeria 1-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 67%, Villarreal 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Almeria) and 33% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Villarreal in 42%; Villarreal in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Almeria's recent matches and 25% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almeria vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Almeria's recent games and 33% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Villarreal tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Villarreal cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Almeria 0-2 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.88 xG and Villarreal 1.15 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Almeria fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Villarreal outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Villarreal attack 1.01 / defence 1.20, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 54% | Draw 22% | Villarreal 23%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Villarreal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 52%, Villarreal 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Villarreal's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 1.09 PPG, Villarreal 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.