Almeria 1-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almeria at 50%, yet in-form Cadiz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Almeria vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Almeria welcome Cadiz to Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Almeria have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Almeria are significantly better at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cadiz stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cadiz's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Almeria's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Almeria, 0 for Cadiz and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Almeria in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 60% versus Cadiz 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 52% | Cadiz 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.43 xG and Cadiz 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.992 / defence 1.226 | Cadiz attack 0.744 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 0.979. Data: 25 Almeria games / 63 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 50% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 24%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Cadiz 4.17. Almeria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almeria at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cadiz (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almeria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Almeria 60% | Cadiz 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 50% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Almeria 1.43 / Cadiz 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.992 / def 1.226 | Cadiz attack 0.744 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.350 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Almeria (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Cadiz xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Cadiz kick off?
Almeria vs Cadiz kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Cadiz?
Almeria 1 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Almeria vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Cadiz part of?
Almeria vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 50% chance of winning, Cadiz a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Almeria and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Cadiz?
Record (1 meetings): Almeria 0W | Draws 1 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Almeria and Cadiz in?
Almeria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Cadiz (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Almeria's attack at 0.99x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.71
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.32
0.89
Cadiz xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
6%
17.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Almeria and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Almeria and 0.89 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almeria come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 4D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (6W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 1.00 PPG, Cadiz on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Almeria's home form reads 7W 1D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almeria are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.80 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cadiz in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 7W 4D 14L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Cadiz away?
Almeria's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.83 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Almeria or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Cadiz in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almeria and Cadiz runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Almeria won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almeria's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
3
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Cadiz?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 1, Cadiz have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Almeria 6-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Cadiz?
Almeria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 58%, Cadiz 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Almeria) and 33% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 33%; Cadiz in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Almeria's recent matches and 33% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almeria vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Almeria's recent games and 33% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Cadiz tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almeria and Cadiz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 26, as Almeria and Cadiz drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.43 xG and Cadiz 0.89 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.99 / defence 1.23 against Cadiz attack 0.74 / defence 1.07, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 50% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 24%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 52%, Cadiz 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Cadiz's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 1.00 PPG, Cadiz 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.