Alaves 0-1 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 38%, yet in-form Las Palmas provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alaves vs Las Palmas fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mendizorroza plays host to Alaves versus Las Palmas in La Liga (matchday 16). Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Alaves's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alaves's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 2L across their last 7 home games (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Alaves are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Las Palmas have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Las Palmas's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 5L across their last 8 road games (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Las Palmas arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Las Palmas goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 47% versus Las Palmas 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 27% | Las Palmas 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.13 xG and Las Palmas 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.838 / defence 1.137 | Las Palmas attack 0.731 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.125. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Alaves's last 15 games and Las Palmas's last 15.
Result probabilities: Alaves 38% | Draw 35% | Las Palmas 27%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.66 | Draw 2.86 | Las Palmas 3.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Las Palmas (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alaves 43% (last 7 home games) | Las Palmas 38% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, matchday 16 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 38% | Draw 35% | Las Palmas 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Alaves 1.13 / Las Palmas 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.838 / def 1.137 | Las Palmas attack 0.731 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Alaves (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Las Palmas xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Las Palmas FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Las Palmas kick off?
Alaves vs Las Palmas kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Las Palmas?
Alaves 0 - 1 Las Palmas.
Where is Alaves vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Las Palmas part of?
Alaves vs Las Palmas is a La Liga fixture (matchday 16) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 38% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Alaves and Las Palmas will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Alaves vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Alaves's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Las Palmas's attack (0.73x) against Alaves's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 15 games and Las Palmas's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
38%
2.66
35%
2.86
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.07
0.94
Las Palmas xG
2.66
38%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Las Palmas Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Alaves and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Alaves and 0.94 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alaves's recent record stands at 4W 4D 7L from 15 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Las Palmas, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 6L across 15 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Alaves against 1.40 for Las Palmas. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 4W 1D 2L from their last 7 home games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Las Palmas's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across their last 7 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.87 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
Alaves (Home) vs Las Palmas (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
❓ Alaves vs Las Palmas Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Las Palmas away?
Alaves's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.86 PPG; Las Palmas away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Alaves and Las Palmas, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Alaves
2
Draws
1
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Las Palmas H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Las Palmas?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 1, Las Palmas have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Las Palmas last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2025: Las Palmas 2-2 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 43%, Las Palmas 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Alaves and 29% for Las Palmas.
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 29% of games; Las Palmas in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Las Palmas Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Las Palmas matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Alaves's recent matches and 43% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Las Palmas matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Alaves's recent games and 29% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Las Palmas matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Alaves's recent matches and 57% of Las Palmas's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Las Palmas defy the odds to beat Alaves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.13 xG and Las Palmas 0.94 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Las Palmas attack 0.73 / defence 0.92, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 38% | Draw 35% | Las Palmas 27%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Las Palmas win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 27%, Las Palmas 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Las Palmas's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.07 PPG, Las Palmas 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Las Palmas win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Las Palmas (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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