Suwon City FC 2-3 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 3 sees Suwon Bluewings travel to Suwon Sports Complex to take on Suwon City FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023, 05:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon City FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC at Suwon Sports Complex this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Suwon Sports Complex this season.
Suwon Bluewings — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Suwon Bluewings's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Suwon City FC) versus 0.80 (Suwon Bluewings). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Suwon City FC: 7 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Suwon Bluewings, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Suwon City FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Suwon City FC and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Suwon City FC in-play tendencies (73 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Suwon Bluewings in-play tendencies (73 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Suwon Bluewings 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Suwon Bluewings 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.61 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.009 / defence 1.316 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.893 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Suwon Bluewings bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Suwon City FC games / 66 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 25% | Suwon Bluewings 31%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Suwon Bluewings 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon City FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Suwon Bluewings 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 25% | Suwon Bluewings 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Suwon City FC 1.61 / Suwon Bluewings 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.009 / def 1.316 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.893 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Suwon Bluewings xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon City FC 2 - 3 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 44% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (9 meetings): Suwon City FC 7W | Draws 0 | Suwon Bluewings 2W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
44%
2.29
25%
3.95
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.94
1.33
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
6%
16.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.33 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 21W 17D 35L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 17W 20D 36L from 73 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.10 PPG, Suwon Bluewings on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.26 PPG from 35 outings (12W 8D 15L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 8W 9D 18L from 35 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.04 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 21W 17D 35L in their last 73 games (1.10 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 17W 20D 36L in their last 73 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.26 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2021, when Suwon City FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Suwon City FC
0
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 7, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Suwon City FC 2-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 69%, Suwon Bluewings 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Suwon City FC and 54% for Suwon Bluewings. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Suwon City FC's games and 60% of Suwon Bluewings's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Suwon City FC's matches and 54% of Suwon Bluewings's.
Do Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon Bluewings defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Suwon City FC 2-3 at Suwon Sports Complex, Relegation Round - 3, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.61 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.33 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.32 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.89 / defence 1.30, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 25% | Suwon Bluewings 31%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Suwon Bluewings win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 62%, Suwon Bluewings 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.10 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.