Suwon City FC 2-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Suwon City FC welcome Jeju United FC to Suwon Sports Complex. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 September 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Suwon Sports Complex, Suwon City FC have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Suwon City FC at 1.50 PPG versus Jeju United FC's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 61% versus Jeju United FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 61% | Jeju United FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.86 xG and Jeju United FC 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.299 / defence 1.402 | Jeju United FC attack 0.968 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.243. Suwon City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 Suwon City FC games / 61 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 42% | Draw 23% | Jeju United FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Jeju United FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Jeju United FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 42% | Draw 23% | Jeju United FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Suwon City FC 1.86 / Jeju United FC 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.299 / def 1.402 | Jeju United FC attack 0.968 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Jeju United FC xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Suwon City FC 2 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 42% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.30) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
42%
2.39
23%
4.27
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.54
1.69
Jeju United FC xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.93
5%
18.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.69 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 24W 15D 27L from 66 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 24D 19L across 66 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.32 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 15W 5D 13L from 33 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 11W 12D 10L across 33 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 24W 15D 27L in their last 66 games (1.32 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 23W 24D 19L in their last 66 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.52 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Jeju United FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
6
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 70%, Jeju United FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Suwon City FC) and 46% (Jeju United FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC in 33%; Jeju United FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Suwon City FC's games and 48% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Suwon City FC's matches and 46% of Jeju United FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 29, as Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.86 xG and Jeju United FC 1.69 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.40 against Jeju United FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 42% | Draw 23% | Jeju United FC 35%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 61%, Jeju United FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.32 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.