Suwon City FC 2-4 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Daegu FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.11 xG and Daegu FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.964 / defence 1.211 | Daegu FC attack 0.776 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 0.911 / away 0.970. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Suwon City FC games / 12 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 39% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Daegu FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 39% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Suwon City FC 1.11 / Daegu FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.964 / def 1.211 | Daegu FC attack 0.776 / def 1.261 | league avg home 0.911 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Daegu FC xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 1 May 2021 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Suwon City FC 2 - 4 Daegu FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 39% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Suwon City FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (0.96) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.18
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.02
0.91
Daegu FC xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 0.91 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
5
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Suwon City FC 2-4 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.11 xG and Daegu FC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC outscored their 0.91 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against Daegu FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 39% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 29%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.