Suwon Bluewings 0-3 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Suwon City FC travel to Suwon World Cup Stadium to take on Suwon Bluewings. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 25 August 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon Bluewings have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon Bluewings at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Suwon City FC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Suwon Bluewings's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Suwon Bluewings register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Suwon City FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon Bluewings 56% and Suwon City FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 56% | Suwon City FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.24 xG and Suwon City FC 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.901 / defence 1.305 | Suwon City FC attack 1.103 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.112. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Suwon Bluewings's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Suwon Bluewings games / 25 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 30% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Suwon City FC 2.17. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 80% | Suwon City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 30% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.24 / Suwon City FC 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.901 / def 1.305 | Suwon City FC attack 1.103 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Suwon City FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 25 August 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Suwon Bluewings 0 - 3 Suwon City FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 30% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Suwon City FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (0.90) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
30%
3.39
25%
4.04
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.84
1.60
Suwon City FC xG
3.39
30%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
6%
16.82
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.60 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Suwon Bluewings have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 9W 7D 9L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon City FC's form line: 9W 7D 9L from 25 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon Bluewings on 1.36 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Suwon Bluewings have posted 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 4W 4D 5L from 13 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.36 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 64%.
Defensively: Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 9W 7D 9L in their last 25 games (1.36 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 9W 7D 9L in their last 25 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Suwon City FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.23 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2021, when Suwon City FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
0
Draws
7
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Suwon City FC 2-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Suwon Bluewings at 69%, Suwon City FC at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Suwon Bluewings) and 54% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 62% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 54% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Suwon City FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Suwon Bluewings 0-3 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.24 xG and Suwon City FC 1.60 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Suwon City FC outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.90 / defence 1.30 against Suwon City FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.36, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 30% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 46%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 56%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.36 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.