Suwon Bluewings 2-2 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC meet at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Suwon Bluewings (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Suwon Bluewings have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gwangju FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gwangju FC are 0.60 PPG clear of Suwon Bluewings in recent K League 1 fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Suwon Bluewings lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2021, ended 4–3 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Suwon Bluewings — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 54% versus Gwangju FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 58% | Gwangju FC 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.06 xG and Gwangju FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.812 / defence 1.358 | Gwangju FC attack 0.685 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 0.984 / away 1.146. Gwangju FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Suwon Bluewings's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Suwon Bluewings games / 26 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 34% | Draw 31% | Gwangju FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Gwangju FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gwangju FC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Suwon Bluewings 70% | Gwangju FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 34% | Draw 31% | Gwangju FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.06 / Gwangju FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.812 / def 1.358 | Gwangju FC attack 0.685 / def 1.323 | league avg home 0.984 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Gwangju FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Suwon Bluewings 2 - 2 Gwangju FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 34% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC?
Record (2 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 2W | Draws 0 | Gwangju FC 0W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Gwangju FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Suwon Bluewings's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.69x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
34%
2.90
31%
3.26
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.12
1.06
Gwangju FC xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.06 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suwon Bluewings's recent record stands at 8W 8D 10L from 26 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gwangju FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 14L across 26 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Suwon Bluewings against 1.08 for Gwangju FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Suwon Bluewings have managed 3W 4D 6L from 13 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gwangju FC's away record stands at 3W 1D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 0.96 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 26 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Gwangju FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 8W 4D 14L in their last 26 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Gwangju FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.00 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Gwangju FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gwangju FC won 4-0 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
1
Draws
3
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Gwangju FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2023, when Gwangju FC 4-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 69%, Gwangju FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Suwon Bluewings) and 46% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Gwangju FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 46% of Gwangju FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 46% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.06 xG and Gwangju FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gwangju FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.81 / defence 1.36 against Gwangju FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.32, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 34% | Draw 31% | Gwangju FC 35%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 58%, Gwangju FC 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.23 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.