Suwon Bluewings 1-3 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 39%, yet in-form Daejeon Citizen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings host Daejeon Citizen at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 March 2023 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon Bluewings — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Suwon Bluewings's home record at Suwon World Cup Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 3W 0D 1L from 4 outings — 2.25 PPG. Last five: W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Daejeon Citizen have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Daejeon Citizen's 2.25 PPG return is 0.75 points per game ahead of Suwon Bluewings's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Suwon Bluewings in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 50% versus Daejeon Citizen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Suwon Bluewings 75% | Daejeon Citizen 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.52 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.849 / defence 1.081 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.139 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.113. Daejeon Citizen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Suwon Bluewings's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Suwon Bluewings games / 3 Daejeon Citizen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 39% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 32%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Daejeon Citizen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daejeon Citizen (2.25 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 60% | Daejeon Citizen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 39% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.52 / Daejeon Citizen 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.849 / def 1.081 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.139 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Daejeon Citizen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 3 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 39% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Suwon Bluewings's attack at 0.85x the league average against Daejeon Citizen's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.51
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.89
1.37
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
10%
10.05
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.37 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Suwon Bluewings have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 3W 1D 0L record — W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Daejeon Citizen's form line: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon Bluewings on 2.50 PPG, Daejeon Citizen on 2.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded. Daejeon Citizen's attacking output running into Suwon Bluewings's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Daejeon Citizen in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Early Season
Daejeon Citizen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 games (2.50 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Suwon Bluewings or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Suwon Bluewings
2
Draws
2
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen?
From 4 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 0, Daejeon Citizen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 2-2 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 50%, Daejeon Citizen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Suwon Bluewings and 75% for Daejeon Citizen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Daejeon Citizen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Daejeon Citizen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 50% of Daejeon Citizen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Suwon Bluewings's matches and 75% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daejeon Citizen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Suwon Bluewings 1-3 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.52 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.37 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.14 / defence 1.33, drawn from 36/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 39% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 32%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 75%, Daejeon Citizen 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 2.50 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 2.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon Bluewings managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.