Pohang Steelers 0-3 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Pohang Steelers take on Suwon Bluewings.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pohang Steelers host Suwon Bluewings at Steelyard Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 17 March 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.99 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.050 / defence 1.158 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.699 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 0.936 / away 0.976. Data: 4 Pohang Steelers games / 4 Suwon Bluewings games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 36% | Draw 38% | Suwon Bluewings 26%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Suwon Bluewings 3.85. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Mar 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 36% | Draw 38% | Suwon Bluewings 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 37% | xG Pohang Steelers 0.99 / Suwon Bluewings 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.050 / def 1.158 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.699 / def 1.008 | league avg home 0.936 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Suwon Bluewings xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 10:00 on Wednesday 17 March 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 3 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 36% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 26% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pohang Steelers's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.74
38%
2.63
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
1.78
0.79
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.74
36%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.79 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2021, when Suwon Bluewings won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
4
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings?
From 9 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 1-0 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Suwon Bluewings run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pohang Steelers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Pohang Steelers 0-3 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.99 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.79 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pohang Steelers fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Suwon Bluewings outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.05 / defence 1.16 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.70 / defence 1.01, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 36% | Draw 38% | Suwon Bluewings 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Suwon Bluewings win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.