Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors host Suwon Bluewings at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jeonbuk Motors, 0 for Suwon Bluewings and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2021, ended 3–1 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.17 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.365 / defence 1.006 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.744 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 0.925 / away 1.008. Jeonbuk Motors carry an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — their λ of 1.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Jeonbuk Motors games / 13 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 33% | Suwon Bluewings 22%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Suwon Bluewings 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 33% | Suwon Bluewings 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.17 / Suwon Bluewings 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.365 / def 1.006 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.744 / def 0.929 | league avg home 0.925 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Suwon Bluewings xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 3 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 44% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (1 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 1W | Draws 0 | Suwon Bluewings 0W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jeonbuk Motors's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
44%
2.25
33%
3.00
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
1.93
0.76
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.76 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2021, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeonbuk Motors
2
Draws
1
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, Suwon Bluewings have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Suwon Bluewings cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jeonbuk Motors.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.17 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.76 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings outscored their 0.76 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.36 / defence 1.01 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.74 / defence 0.93, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 33% | Suwon Bluewings 22%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Suwon Bluewings win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.