Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gangwon FC make the trip to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to face Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1, Championship Round - 3. The match kicks off on Tuesday 11 October 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeonbuk Motors's home record at Jeonju World Cup Stadium: 5W 5D 0L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gangwon FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jeonbuk Motors have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Gangwon FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 53% versus Gangwon FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 45% | Gangwon FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.27 xG and Gangwon FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.886 / defence 0.898 | Gangwon FC attack 1.178 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.241. Data: 66 Jeonbuk Motors games / 66 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 36% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Gangwon FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 70% | Gangwon FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 36% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.27 / Gangwon FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.886 / def 0.898 | Gangwon FC attack 1.178 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Gangwon FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 11 October 2022 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 36% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jeonbuk Motors's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Gangwon FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (1.18x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.77
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.58
1.31
Gangwon FC xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.31 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Jeonbuk Motors have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 40W 20D 13L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 25W 20D 28L from 73 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gangwon FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 1.89 PPG from 36 outings (19W 11D 6L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 9W 9D 18L from 36 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.26 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 40W 20D 13L in their last 73 games (1.92 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 25W 20D 28L in their last 73 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Gangwon FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.89 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-3 on 13 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeonbuk Motors
2
Draws
6
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 2, Gangwon FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 56%, Gangwon FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 53% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Gangwon FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 56% of Gangwon FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 53% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeonbuk Motors defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Gangwon FC 1-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Championship Round - 3, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.27 xG and Gangwon FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.89 / defence 0.90 against Gangwon FC attack 1.18 / defence 1.02, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 36% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 38%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Jeonbuk Motors win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 45%, Gangwon FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.