Jeonbuk Motors 2-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 38%, yet in-form Daegu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors host Daegu FC at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jeonbuk Motors — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 5W 2D 2L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 1.89 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.89 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Jeonbuk Motors are significantly better at Jeonju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Daegu FC's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Jeonbuk Motors's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jeonbuk Motors register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Daegu FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Daegu FC trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 63% versus Daegu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Daegu FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.47 xG and Daegu FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.226 / defence 1.250 | Daegu FC attack 0.853 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.290. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Jeonbuk Motors's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Jeonbuk Motors games / 21 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Daegu FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daegu FC (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 67% | Daegu FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.47 / Daegu FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.226 / def 1.250 | Daegu FC attack 0.853 / def 1.277 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Daegu FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 38% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.23x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
38%
2.61
28%
3.62
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.85
1.38
Daegu FC xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.38 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 9W 6D 4L from 19 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 4L across 19 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.74 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 5W 2D 2L from 9 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 4W 2D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.26 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeonbuk Motors have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Daegu FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Daegu FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.89 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, Daegu FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 67%, Daegu FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 56% (Daegu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Daegu FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 56% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Jeonbuk Motors's matches and 56% of Daegu FC's.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Daegu FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Daegu FC 2-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.47 xG and Daegu FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.23 / defence 1.25 against Daegu FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.28, drawn from 19/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 34%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 42%, Daegu FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.74 PPG, Daegu FC 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.