Jeju United FC 0-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Jeju United FC welcome Suwon City FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 05:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon City FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jeju United FC at 1.10 PPG versus Suwon City FC's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Jeju United FC trading profile (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jeju United FC 60% and Suwon City FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 57% | Suwon City FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.41 xG and Suwon City FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.035 / defence 1.012 | Suwon City FC attack 0.988 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.211. Data: 33 Jeju United FC games / 33 Suwon City FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 42% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon City FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 80% | Suwon City FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 42% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Jeju United FC 1.41 / Suwon City FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.035 / def 1.012 | Suwon City FC attack 0.988 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Suwon City FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Jeju United FC 0 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 42% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
42%
2.41
26%
3.83
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.62
1.21
Suwon City FC xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.21 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 26W 26D 24L from 76 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 18D 31L across 76 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.37 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 12W 13D 12L from 37 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 9W 11D 17L across 37 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 26W 26D 24L in their last 76 games (1.37 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 27W 18D 31L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.32 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Jeju United FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 65%, Suwon City FC 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Jeju United FC) and 51% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suwon City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Jeju United FC's games and 51% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Jeju United FC's matches and 51% of Suwon City FC's.
Do Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jeju United FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.41 xG and Suwon City FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jeju United FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Suwon City FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.01 against Suwon City FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 42% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 32%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 57%, Suwon City FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.37 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.