Incheon United 1-0 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Incheon United at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Seongnam FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Incheon United and Seongnam FC meet at Sungui Arena Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 May 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Current Form
Incheon United's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Incheon United's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Sungui Arena Park this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sungui Arena Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Seongnam FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Seongnam FC have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Seongnam FC are 0.50 PPG clear of Incheon United in recent K League 1 fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Incheon United lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Incheon United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Incheon United — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Seongnam FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 45% versus Seongnam FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 40% | Seongnam FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.18 xG and Seongnam FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.943 / defence 0.985 | Seongnam FC attack 0.919 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.114. Data: 47 Incheon United games / 47 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 40% | Draw 29% | Seongnam FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Seongnam FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Incheon United dominate the H2H record, yet Seongnam FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Incheon United are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Seongnam FC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 20% | Seongnam FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 40% | Draw 29% | Seongnam FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Incheon United 1.18 / Seongnam FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.943 / def 0.985 | Seongnam FC attack 0.919 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Seongnam FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Seongnam FC?
Incheon United 1 - 0 Seongnam FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Seongnam FC part of?
Incheon United vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 40% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Incheon United and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Seongnam FC?
Record (5 meetings): Incheon United 3W | Draws 1 | Seongnam FC 1W.
What form are Incheon United and Seongnam FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Seongnam FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Incheon United's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Seongnam FC's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Seongnam FC's attack (0.92x) against Incheon United's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.44
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.19
1.01
Seongnam FC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.01 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Incheon United's recent record stands at 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Seongnam FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 16L across 38 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Incheon United against 1.16 for Seongnam FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Incheon United have managed 7W 6D 6L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Seongnam FC's away record stands at 3W 6D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Incheon United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Incheon United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.89 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Seongnam FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Seongnam FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.42 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Incheon United
1
Draws
2
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Seongnam FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 4, Seongnam FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2022, when Seongnam FC 3-1 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Seongnam FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Seongnam FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 32%, Seongnam FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Incheon United) and 53% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Incheon United have failed to score in 47% of games; Seongnam FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Incheon United's recent matches and 47% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Incheon United's recent games and 53% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Incheon United edge out Seongnam FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Seongnam FC 1-0 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.18 xG and Seongnam FC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Seongnam FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Seongnam FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 40% | Draw 29% | Seongnam FC 31%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 40%, Seongnam FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.24 PPG, Seongnam FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.