Gwangju FC 3-4 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings meet at Gwangju Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 May 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gwangju FC lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2021, ended 0–1 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 0.57 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.658 / defence 0.956 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.870 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 1.139. Gwangju FC's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 0.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Gwangju FC games / 17 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 19% | Draw 40% | Suwon Bluewings 41%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 5.26 | Draw 2.50 | Suwon Bluewings 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 40% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Gwangju FC's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 40% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 19% | Draw 40% | Suwon Bluewings 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 29% | xG Gwangju FC 0.57 / Suwon Bluewings 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.658 / def 0.956 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.870 / def 0.902 | league avg home 0.958 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.57
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Suwon Bluewings xG
29%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 23 May 2021 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Gwangju FC 3 - 4 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 19% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 41% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (1 meetings): Gwangju FC 0W | Draws 0 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gwangju FC's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.57. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.87x) against Gwangju FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (19.3%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
19%
5.22
40%
2.52
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
20.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.57
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
1.52
0.95
Suwon Bluewings xG
5.22
19%
Home win
2.52
40%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.48
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
57%
1.77
Win to Nil
7%
13.47
23%
4.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.9 | 20.8 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.5%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 0.57 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 0.95 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Gwangju FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gwangju FC won 4-0 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gwangju FC
1
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 6 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 3, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2023, when Gwangju FC 4-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon Bluewings edge out Gwangju FC 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Gwangju FC 3-4 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 0.57 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.95 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Gwangju FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon Bluewings outscored their 0.95 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.66 / defence 0.96 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.87 / defence 0.90, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 19% | Draw 40% | Suwon Bluewings 41%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.