Gwangju FC 4-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gwangju FC host Gangwon FC at Gwangju Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Gwangju FC at Gwangju Football Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gwangju Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gangwon FC — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gwangju FC at 1.70 PPG versus Gangwon FC's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Gwangju FC's 10% rate and Gangwon FC's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Gwangju FC have won 1, Gangwon FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Gwangju FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gwangju FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 16% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Gangwon FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 34% versus Gangwon FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gwangju FC 26% | Gangwon FC 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.33 xG and Gangwon FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 1.113 / defence 0.816 | Gangwon FC attack 0.968 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.018. Data: 34 Gwangju FC games / 34 Gangwon FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 48% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Gangwon FC 4.76. Gwangju FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gwangju FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gwangju FC 10% | Gangwon FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 48% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Gwangju FC 1.33 / Gangwon FC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 1.113 / def 0.816 | Gangwon FC attack 0.968 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Gangwon FC xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Gwangju FC 4 - 2 Gangwon FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 48% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (2 meetings): Gwangju FC 1W | Draws 1 | Gangwon FC 0W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 1.11x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
48%
2.10
31%
3.22
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.14
0.81
Gangwon FC xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
6%
17.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 0.81 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 16W 11D 11L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 7W 17D 14L from 38 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Gwangju FC are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gangwon FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 3W 9D 7L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 0.84 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 7W 17D 14L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.63 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gwangju FC
2
Draws
6
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 2, Gangwon FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gwangju FC 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Gwangju FC 16% BTTS, Gangwon FC 37%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Gwangju FC and 16% for Gangwon FC.
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 32%; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 47% of games; Gangwon FC in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 16% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 37% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 16% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gwangju FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Gangwon FC 4-2 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.33 xG and Gangwon FC 0.81 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Gwangju FC beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gangwon FC outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.82 against Gangwon FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 48% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 21%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 26%, Gangwon FC 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gwangju FC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.