Gangwon FC 0-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Gangwon FC welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 March 2023 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Gangwon FC have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gangwon FC 1.30 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gangwon FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 53% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 49% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.39 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.032 / defence 1.007 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.966 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.251. Data: 34 Gangwon FC games / 34 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 41% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 70% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 41% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Gangwon FC 1.39 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.032 / def 1.007 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.966 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gangwon FC 0 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 41% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.71
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.61
1.22
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.22 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 25W 20D 31L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 43W 21D 12L from 76 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gangwon FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.59 PPG from 37 outings (16W 11D 10L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 17W 12D 8L from 37 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.59 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 25W 20D 31L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 21D 12L in their last 76 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.59 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 51%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Gangwon FC) and 54% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Gangwon FC's games and 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 54% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gangwon FC 0-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.39 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.01 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 41% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 49%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.