Gangwon FC 2-1 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 5 as Gangwon FC welcome Seongnam FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 December 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Gangwon FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Seongnam FC's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Gangwon FC) versus 1.70 (Seongnam FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Gangwon FC, 1 for Seongnam FC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Seongnam FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Seongnam FC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 49% versus Seongnam FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 46% | Seongnam FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.40 xG and Seongnam FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.089 / defence 1.156 | Seongnam FC attack 0.683 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 0.935 / away 1.264. Seongnam FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing Gangwon FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Gangwon FC games / 33 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 46% | Draw 27% | Seongnam FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Seongnam FC 3.70. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gangwon FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 50% | Seongnam FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 46% | Draw 27% | Seongnam FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Gangwon FC 1.40 / Seongnam FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.089 / def 1.156 | Seongnam FC attack 0.683 / def 1.378 | league avg home 0.935 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Seongnam FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC?
Gangwon FC 2 - 1 Seongnam FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 46% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC?
Record (3 meetings): Gangwon FC 1W | Draws 1 | Seongnam FC 1W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Seongnam FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Seongnam FC's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.71
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.40
1.00
Seongnam FC xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.00 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 9W 13D 15L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Seongnam FC's form line: 11W 11D 15L from 37 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.08 PPG, Seongnam FC on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (6W 8D 4L).
On the road, Seongnam FC have gone 3W 6D 9L from 18 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.89 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Seongnam FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Seongnam FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 9W 13D 15L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Seongnam FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gangwon FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when Gangwon FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Gangwon FC
1
Draws
1
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 5, Seongnam FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 0-4 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Seongnam FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 44%, Seongnam FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gangwon FC) and 50% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Gangwon FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Seongnam FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 44% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 50% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gangwon FC edge out Seongnam FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Seongnam FC 2-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Relegation Round - 5, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.40 xG and Seongnam FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against Seongnam FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.38, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 46% | Draw 27% | Seongnam FC 27%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 46%, Seongnam FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.08 PPG, Seongnam FC 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.