FC Seoul 0-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Seoul and Jeonbuk Motors meet at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 July 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Seoul's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Seoul at Seoul World Cup Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Jeonbuk Motors arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
FC Seoul goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 53% versus Jeonbuk Motors 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 42% | Jeonbuk Motors 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 0.88 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.033 / defence 1.076 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.293 / defence 0.675. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.121. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.675 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Jeonbuk Motors have an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 FC Seoul games / 52 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 21% | Draw 27% | Jeonbuk Motors 53%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Jeonbuk Motors 1.89. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Seoul 60% | Jeonbuk Motors 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Jul 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 21% | Draw 27% | Jeonbuk Motors 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Seoul 0.88 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.033 / def 1.076 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.293 / def 0.675 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Jeonbuk Motors xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 6 July 2022 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors?
FC Seoul 0 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 21% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Seoul and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Jeonbuk Motors in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Seoul's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (1.29x) against FC Seoul's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
21%
4.87
27%
3.71
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.44
1.56
Jeonbuk Motors xG
4.87
21%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
4%
23.17
22%
4.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 13.6 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.56 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Seoul come into this having played 57 games, going 17W 19D 21L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.95 PPG from 57 outings (32W 15D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Seoul's home form reads 8W 9D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 2.07 points per game from 28 outings (17W 7D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Seoul are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.65 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 17W 19D 21L in their last 57 games (1.23 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 32W 15D 10L in their last 57 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.18 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 2.07 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 1-5 on 29 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Seoul have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Seoul
4
Draws
4
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 2, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 0-0 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 50%, Jeonbuk Motors 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Seoul) and 43% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 43%; FC Seoul have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 46% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Seoul's recent games and 43% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out FC Seoul 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat FC Seoul 0-1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 0.88 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.56 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Seoul fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.29 / defence 0.68, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 21% | Draw 27% | Jeonbuk Motors 53%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 42%, Jeonbuk Motors 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.