FC Seoul 0-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Jeju United FC travel to Seoul World Cup Stadium to take on FC Seoul. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 August 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Seoul's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Seoul World Cup Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Seoul 1.30 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 55% versus Jeju United FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 44% | Jeju United FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.46 xG and Jeju United FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.987 / defence 0.977 | Jeju United FC attack 0.911 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.234. Data: 57 FC Seoul games / 57 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 45% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Jeju United FC 3.57. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Seoul at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Seoul 60% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 45% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Seoul 1.46 / Jeju United FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.987 / def 0.977 | Jeju United FC attack 0.911 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Jeju United FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
FC Seoul 0 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 45% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Seoul and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Jeju United FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (0.99) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.64
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.56
1.10
Jeju United FC xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
6%
15.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.10 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 19W 20D 23L from 62 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 23D 18L across 62 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Seoul on 1.24 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 9W 9D 12L from 30 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Seoul are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.27 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 62 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 19W 20D 23L in their last 62 games (1.24 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 21W 23D 18L in their last 62 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Jeju United FC away?
Jeju United FC's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.20 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Seoul's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Seoul
1
Draws
5
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 4, Jeju United FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 50%, Jeju United FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Seoul) and 50% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul have failed to score in 33% of games; Jeju United FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 50% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Seoul's recent games and 50% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Seoul.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat FC Seoul 0-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.46 xG and Jeju United FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Seoul fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Jeju United FC outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Jeju United FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 45% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 28%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 44%, Jeju United FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.24 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.