FC Anyang 0-1 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Incheon United travel to Anyang Stadium to take on FC Anyang. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026, 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Anyang stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Anyang Stadium, FC Anyang have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Incheon United haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, FC Anyang have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
FC Anyang trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Incheon United trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 60% versus Incheon United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 55% | Incheon United 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.88 xG and Incheon United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.133 / defence 0.972 | Incheon United attack 0.972 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.196. Incheon United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing FC Anyang's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 FC Anyang games / 4 Incheon United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 52% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 19%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Incheon United 5.26. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Anyang are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Anyang 60% | Incheon United 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 52% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Anyang 1.88 / Incheon United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 1.133 / def 0.972 | Incheon United attack 0.972 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Incheon United xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Incheon United kick off?
FC Anyang vs Incheon United kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Incheon United?
FC Anyang 0 - 1 Incheon United.
Where is FC Anyang vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Incheon United part of?
FC Anyang vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 52% chance of winning, Incheon United a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Anyang and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Incheon United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Anyang and Incheon United in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Incheon United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Anyang's attack at 1.13x the league average against Incheon United's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.48
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
3.01
1.13
Incheon United xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
3%
33.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.13 for Incheon United, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Anyang's recent record stands at 14W 7D 17L from 38 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Incheon United, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 17L across 38 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. Incheon United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Anyang on 1.29 PPG, Incheon United on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Anyang have managed 8W 4D 7L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Incheon United's away record stands at 6W 7D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Anyang are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Current Season
Incheon United
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Incheon United in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 9W 12D 17L in their last 38 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Incheon United away?
FC Anyang's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.47 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Anyang have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
FC Anyang's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
FC Anyang
0
Draws
1
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Incheon United?
From 3 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 2, Incheon United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2026, when FC Anyang 2-1 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Incheon United?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 58%, Incheon United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Anyang) and 47% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Incheon United in 37%; FC Anyang have failed to score in 32% of games; Incheon United in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Incheon United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of FC Anyang's recent matches and 47% of Incheon United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Anyang vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Anyang's recent games and 47% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Anyang and Incheon United tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Incheon United defy the odds to beat FC Anyang 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat FC Anyang 0-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.88 xG and Incheon United 1.13 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Anyang fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 1.13 / defence 0.97 against Incheon United attack 0.97 / defence 1.30, drawn from 37/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 52% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 19%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Incheon United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 55%, Incheon United 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Incheon United's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Anyang 1.29 PPG, Incheon United 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. FC Anyang (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Incheon United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.