FC Anyang 1-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as FC Anyang take on FC Seoul.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

FC Seoul make the trip to Anyang Stadium to face FC Anyang in K League 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 05:00 UTC.

Current Form

FC Anyang's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FC Anyang's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Anyang Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

FC Seoul (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

FC Seoul's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. FC Anyang's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of FC Seoul's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Seoul in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Anyang, 1 for FC Seoul and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with FC Anyang winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

FC Anyang — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

FC Seoul — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Anyang 60% and FC Seoul 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 55% | FC Seoul 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.10 xG and FC Seoul 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.963 / defence 1.000 | FC Seoul attack 1.187 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.015. Data: 38 FC Anyang games / 37 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 29% | Draw 36% | FC Seoul 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | FC Seoul 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 60% | FC Seoul 80% BTTS from recent games.

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