Daegu FC 3-0 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022 at 06:00 UTC.
Form
Daegu FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon Bluewings have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.00 for Suwon Bluewings. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Daegu FC 1W, Suwon Bluewings 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Daegu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 53% versus Suwon Bluewings 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Suwon Bluewings 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.32 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.008 / defence 1.002 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.845 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.205. Data: 43 Daegu FC games / 43 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 43% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 28%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Suwon Bluewings 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 60% | Suwon Bluewings 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 43% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Daegu FC 1.32 / Suwon Bluewings 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.008 / def 1.002 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.845 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Suwon Bluewings xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Daegu FC 3 - 0 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 43% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (3 meetings): Daegu FC 1W | Draws 1 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Daegu FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.84x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.42
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.02
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
7%
13.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.02 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 15W 10D 13L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 12W 10D 16L from 38 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.21 for Suwon Bluewings. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 7W 4D 8L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.11 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 3-0 on 8 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 5, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 53%, Suwon Bluewings 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Daegu FC) and 42% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 42%; Daegu FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Suwon Bluewings in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 32% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Daegu FC's recent games and 42% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Daegu FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Suwon Bluewings 3-0 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.32 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.02 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon Bluewings landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.84 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 43% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 28%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Suwon Bluewings 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.45 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.