Daegu FC 0-0 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Incheon United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Incheon United in K League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Tuesday 9 July 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Daegu FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Daegu FC have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Incheon United's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Daegu FC. A 0.60 PPG lead over Incheon United (1.30 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Daegu FC lead 1W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Incheon United half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 49% versus Incheon United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Daegu FC 41% | Incheon United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.66 xG and Incheon United 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.039 / defence 0.996 | Incheon United attack 0.992 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.162. Data: 54 Daegu FC games / 54 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 49% | Draw 24% | Incheon United 26%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Incheon United 3.85. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 50% | Incheon United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Jul 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 49% | Draw 24% | Incheon United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Daegu FC 1.66 / Incheon United 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.039 / def 0.996 | Incheon United attack 0.992 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Incheon United xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Daegu FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 9 July 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Daegu FC 0 - 0 Incheon United.
Where is Daegu FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Incheon United part of?
Daegu FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 49% chance of winning, Incheon United a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Daegu FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Incheon United?
Record (7 meetings): Daegu FC 1W | Draws 4 | Incheon United 2W.
What form are Daegu FC and Incheon United in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Incheon United (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Daegu FC's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Incheon United's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (0.99x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.12
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.15
Incheon United xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.15 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Daegu FC come into this having played 59 games, going 18W 20D 21L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Incheon United sit at 1.31 PPG from 59 outings (18W 23D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.31 for Incheon United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Daegu FC's home form reads 10W 13D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Incheon United have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (9W 11D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.19 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 59 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Incheon United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 18W 20D 21L in their last 59 games (1.25 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 18W 23D 18L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Incheon United away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.48 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Incheon United go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Incheon United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Daegu FC
5
Draws
4
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Incheon United?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 1, Incheon United have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when Daegu FC 1-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 52%, Incheon United 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Daegu FC) and 48% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Incheon United in 31%; Incheon United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Incheon United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 52% of Incheon United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Daegu FC's recent games and 48% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Incheon United tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Daegu FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 22, as Daegu FC and Incheon United drew 0-0 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.66 xG and Incheon United 1.15 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Daegu FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Incheon United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Incheon United attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 49% | Draw 24% | Incheon United 26%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 41%, Incheon United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Incheon United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.25 PPG, Incheon United 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.