Daegu FC 1-0 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Gwangju FC in K League 1, Relegation Group - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 8 November 2025 at 05:00 UTC.
Form
Daegu FC (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 1W 5D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season.
Gwangju FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gwangju FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Daegu FC, 1.60 for Gwangju FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Daegu FC 3W, Gwangju FC 2W, 4D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 3–2 with Daegu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Gwangju FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 64% versus Gwangju FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 60% | Gwangju FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.36 xG and Gwangju FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.988 / defence 1.174 | Gwangju FC attack 0.816 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.227. Data: 66 Daegu FC games / 66 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Gwangju FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 70% | Gwangju FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Group - 36 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Daegu FC 1.36 / Gwangju FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.988 / def 1.174 | Gwangju FC attack 0.816 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Gwangju FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 0 Gwangju FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC is a Relegation Group - 36 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 40% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Daegu FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
Record (9 meetings): Daegu FC 3W | Draws 4 | Gwangju FC 2W.
What form are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.82x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
40%
2.49
29%
3.50
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.18
Gwangju FC xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.18 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 73 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 0.99 PPG on a 16W 24D 33L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Gwangju FC's form line: 27W 14D 32L from 73 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.99 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.30 for Gwangju FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.23 PPG from 35 outings (10W 13D 12L).
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 11W 7D 17L from 35 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daegu FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 16W 24D 33L in their last 73 games (0.99 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 27W 14D 32L in their last 73 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.23 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Daegu FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daegu FC
4
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 4, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Daegu FC 1-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 66%, Gwangju FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Daegu FC) and 40% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Gwangju FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 43% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Daegu FC's recent games and 40% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Gwangju FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Gwangju FC 1-0 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Relegation Group - 36, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.36 xG and Gwangju FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gwangju FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.17 against Gwangju FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 40% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 31%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 60%, Gwangju FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 0.99 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.