Daegu FC 3-4 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Gwangju FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 16 April 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Daegu FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season.
Gwangju FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Gwangju FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gwangju FC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Daegu FC's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 63% versus Gwangju FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 55% | Gwangju FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.65 xG and Gwangju FC 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.018 / defence 0.898 | Gwangju FC attack 0.640 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.110. Data: 39 Daegu FC games / 6 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 60% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 12%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 1.67 | Draw 3.57 | Gwangju FC 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Daegu FC (60%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 50% | Gwangju FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 60% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 40% | xG Daegu FC 1.65 / Gwangju FC 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.018 / def 0.898 | Gwangju FC attack 0.640 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Gwangju FC xG
40%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC 3 - 4 Gwangju FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 60% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 12% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Daegu FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Gwangju FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Daegu FC's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.64x) against Daegu FC's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 39/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
60%
1.67
28%
3.53
12%
8.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.64
Gwangju FC xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
8.45
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
2%
44.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 10.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.64 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 10W 16D 12L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Gwangju FC's form line: 10W 8D 20L from 38 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. Gwangju FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.00 for Gwangju FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 2D 12L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daegu FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 10W 16D 12L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Daegu FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daegu FC
4
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 4, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Daegu FC 1-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 47%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Daegu FC) and 53% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gwangju FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Daegu FC's recent games and 53% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gwangju FC defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Daegu FC 3-4 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.65 xG and Gwangju FC 0.64 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gwangju FC outscored their 0.64 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Gwangju FC attack 0.64 / defence 1.09, drawn from 39/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 60% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 12%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Gwangju FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 55%, Gwangju FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.21 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.