Damac 1-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al Taawon meet at Dhamak Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac at Dhamak Club Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Damac are significantly better at Dhamak Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Taawon have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Al Taawon are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Damac have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Taawon in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Damac, 1 for Al Taawon and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Damac 56% and Al Taawon 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 46% | Al Taawon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.12 xG and Al Taawon 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.845 / defence 1.009 | Al Taawon attack 1.117 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.212. Data: 48 Damac games / 48 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 30% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 42%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Damac 60% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 30% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Damac 1.12 / Al Taawon 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.845 / def 1.009 | Al Taawon attack 1.117 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Al Taawon xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Taawon kick off?
Damac vs Al Taawon kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Taawon?
Damac 1 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Damac vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Taawon part of?
Damac vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 30% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Damac and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taawon?
Record (3 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Damac and Al Taawon in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.84x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.12x) against Damac's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
30%
3.29
28%
3.62
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Damac xG
Total xG
2.49
1.37
Al Taawon xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Damac and 1.37 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Damac have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 17W 15D 16L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 16W 17D 15L from 48 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Damac against 1.35 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (10W 9D 5L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 9W 8D 7L from 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.44 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 69%.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 17W 15D 16L in their last 48 games (1.38 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 16W 17D 15L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Taawon away?
Damac's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.62 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 6-1 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
4
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al Taawon have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Damac 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 54%, Al Taawon 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Damac) and 58% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Damac's games and 71% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Damac's recent games and 58% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Damac 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Damac 1-2 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.12 xG and Al Taawon 1.37 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.84 / defence 1.01 against Al Taawon attack 1.12 / defence 0.91, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 30% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 42%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 46%, Al Taawon 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.38 PPG, Al Taawon 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.