Damac 1-4 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Wednesday 31 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Damac's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Damac against 1.30 for Al Shabab. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Damac 0W, Al Shabab 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Al Shabab winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 52% versus Al Shabab 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 46% | Al Shabab 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.29 xG and Al Shabab 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.792 / defence 0.912 | Al Shabab attack 1.163 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.309. Damac's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Damac games / 59 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 35% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 39%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Al Shabab 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 50% | Al Shabab 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 35% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Damac 1.29 / Al Shabab 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.792 / def 0.912 | Al Shabab attack 1.163 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al Shabab xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Shabab kick off?
Damac vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Shabab?
Damac 1 - 4 Al Shabab.
Where is Damac vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Shabab part of?
Damac vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 35% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Damac and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Shabab?
Record (3 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Damac and Al Shabab in?
Damac (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.79) and Al Shabab's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.16x) against Damac's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
35%
2.90
26%
3.79
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Damac xG
Total xG
2.68
1.39
Al Shabab xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.62
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Damac and 1.39 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac come into this having played 59 games, going 21W 17D 21L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.83 PPG from 59 outings (31W 15D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Damac's home form reads 12W 10D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.52 points per game from 29 outings (12W 8D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.78 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Current Season
Al Shabab
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 21W 17D 21L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 31W 15D 13L in their last 59 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Shabab away?
Damac's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.59 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Damac or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 1-4 on 31 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
3
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al Shabab have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Damac 1-3 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 52%, Al Shabab 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Damac) and 66% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Damac's games and 69% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Damac's recent games and 66% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Damac 1-4 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.29 xG and Al Shabab 1.39 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.79 / defence 0.91 against Al Shabab attack 1.16 / defence 1.17, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 35% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 39%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 46%, Al Shabab 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.