Damac 1-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 40%, yet in-form Al-Ettifaq provide a compelling counter-argument — this Damac vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 26 September 2025 at 16:40 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Damac's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ettifaq are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Damac 2W, Al-Ettifaq 4W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 54% versus Al-Ettifaq 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 54% | Al-Ettifaq 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.55 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.850 / defence 1.086 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.955 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.387. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Damac games / 37 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 40% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 35%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ettifaq 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 50% | Al-Ettifaq 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 16:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 40% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Damac 1.55 / Al-Ettifaq 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.850 / def 1.086 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.955 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Damac (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Al-Ettifaq xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 16:40 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Damac 1 - 3 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Damac vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 40% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Damac and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (8 meetings): Damac 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 4W.
What form are Damac and Al-Ettifaq in?
Damac (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.85) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.95x) against Damac's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
40%
2.49
24%
4.11
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Damac xG
Total xG
2.98
1.44
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Damac and 1.44 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Damac come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 9D 19L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.46 PPG from 37 outings (15W 9D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Damac's home form reads 6W 5D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.67 points per game from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.27 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 15W 9D 13L in their last 37 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.28 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ettifaq go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 15 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Damac
2
Draws
6
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Damac, 72% for Al-Ettifaq — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Damac) and 56% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Damac's games and 72% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Damac's matches and 56% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Damac and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Damac 1-3 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.55 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.44 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 40% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 35%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 54%, Al-Ettifaq 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.