Al Wehda Club 1-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club host Al Taee at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Wehda Club — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's home record at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 3W 2D 0L from 5 Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Wehda Club are significantly better at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taee have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taee have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Wehda Club at 1.20 PPG versus Al Taee's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Al Taee in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Wehda Club 25% | Al Taee 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 25% | Al Taee 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.27 xG and Al Taee 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.783 / defence 0.920 | Al Taee attack 0.829 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.128. Al Wehda Club's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Al Wehda Club games / 43 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 45% | Draw 31% | Al Taee 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Al Taee 4.17. Al Wehda Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wehda Club are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wehda Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 40% | Al Taee 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 45% | Draw 31% | Al Taee 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.27 / Al Taee 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.783 / def 0.920 | Al Taee attack 0.829 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Al Taee xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee?
Al Wehda Club 1 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 45% chance of winning, Al Taee a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Taee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Taee in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Al Taee (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Wehda Club's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al Taee's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.18
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.13
0.86
Al Taee xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
7%
14.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 0.86 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 3D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (5W 0D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wehda Club on 1.00 PPG, Al Taee on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Al Wehda Club are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Taee have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wehda Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wehda Club are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Taee in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 5W 0D 7L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al Taee away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 2.20 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Taee in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wehda Club and Al Taee runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al Wehda Club won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Wehda Club
1
Draws
0
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Taee?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 3, Al Taee have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2024, when Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al Taee?
Al Wehda Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 40%, Al Taee 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Al Wehda Club and 40% for Al Taee.
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Al Taee in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 40% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 40% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Wehda Club edge out Al Taee 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al Taee 1-0 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.27 xG and Al Taee 0.86 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taee landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.78 / defence 0.92 against Al Taee attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 12/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 45% | Draw 31% | Al Taee 24%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 25%, Al Taee 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taee's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 1.00 PPG, Al Taee 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wehda Club win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.