Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wehda Club at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club host Al Taee at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Wehda Club — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's home record at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Wehda Club are significantly better at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taee have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taee have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Wehda Club at 1.20 PPG versus Al Taee's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Al Wehda Club hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al Taee, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with Al Wehda Club winning.
The historical record gives Al Wehda Club a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al Taee in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 49% versus Al Taee 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 49% | Al Taee 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 2.16 xG and Al Taee 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.219 / defence 1.044 | Al Taee attack 0.706 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.414. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Al Wehda Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Al Wehda Club games / 49 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 63% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 17%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Al Taee 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al Wehda Club (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wehda Club are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al Taee 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 63% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Wehda Club 2.16 / Al Taee 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.219 / def 1.044 | Al Taee attack 0.706 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al Taee xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee?
Al Wehda Club 1 - 1 Al Taee.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 63% chance of winning, Al Taee a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Taee?
Record (3 meetings): Al Wehda Club 3W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 0W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Taee in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Al Taee (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Wehda Club's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Al Taee's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
63%
1.59
20%
5.03
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.20
1.04
Al Taee xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
12%
8.67
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
2%
50.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.04 for Al Taee, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 9D 24L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 1.04 PPG from 49 outings (15W 6D 28L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wehda Club on 1.16 PPG, Al Taee on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 10W 6D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taee have taken 0.64 points per game from 25 outings (4W 4D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wehda Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.24 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 16W 9D 24L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 15W 6D 28L in their last 49 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al Taee away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.44 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wehda Club and Al Taee runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al Wehda Club won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Wehda Club
1
Draws
0
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Taee?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 3, Al Taee have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2024, when Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al Taee?
Al Wehda Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 56%, Al Taee 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Wehda Club) and 56% (Al Taee). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 48% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 56% of Al Taee's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club and Al Taee share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club and Al Taee finished level at 1-1 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 2.16 xG and Al Taee 1.04 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Wehda Club fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.22 / defence 1.04 against Al Taee attack 0.71 / defence 1.22, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 63% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 17%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 49%, Al Taee 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taee's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 1.16 PPG, Al Taee 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Taee (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.