Al Wehda Club 1-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Al Wehda Club versus Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Wehda Club's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's home record at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Nassr have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Nassr are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Nassr in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al Wehda Club 0W, Al-Nassr 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2023, ended 0–4 with Al-Nassr winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Wehda Club — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 50% versus Al-Nassr 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 50% | Al-Nassr 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.53 xG and Al-Nassr 2.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.226 / defence 1.197 | Al-Nassr attack 1.527 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.360. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.527 — the away xG of 2.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Al Wehda Club games / 42 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 22% | Draw 19% | Al-Nassr 58%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 4.55 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Nassr 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 2.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 60% | Al-Nassr 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 22% | Draw 19% | Al-Nassr 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 72% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.53 / Al-Nassr 2.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.226 / def 1.197 | Al-Nassr attack 1.527 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
2.49
Al-Nassr xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Al Wehda Club 1 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 22% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 58% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr?
Record (2 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 2W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Wehda Club's attack at 1.23x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.53x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 2.49.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 1-3 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
22%
4.47
19%
5.16
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.1%
Away win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
4.01
2.49
Al-Nassr xG
4.47
22%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
8%
12.01
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
2%
53.73
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 2.49 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 42 games, going 13W 9D 20L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.26 PPG from 42 outings (29W 8D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.05 points per game from 21 outings (13W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.29 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 13W 9D 20L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 29W 8D 5L in their last 42 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 6-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wehda Club have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
6
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Al Wehda Club 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 52%, Al-Nassr 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al Wehda Club) and 62% (Al-Nassr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 48%; Al Wehda Club have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 38% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 62% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Wehda Club 1-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.53 xG and Al-Nassr 2.49 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.23 / defence 1.20 against Al-Nassr attack 1.53 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 22% | Draw 19% | Al-Nassr 58%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 50%, Al-Nassr 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.