Al Taee 1-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 52%, yet in-form Al Shabab provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Taee vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 27 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taee have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's home record at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al Taee are significantly better at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Shabab are 0.70 PPG clear of Al Taee in recent Pro League fixtures (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Taee, 2 for Al Shabab and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Sep 2022, ended 0–4 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taee — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 43% versus Al Shabab 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 57% | Al Shabab 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.91 xG and Al Shabab 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.191 / defence 1.065 | Al Shabab attack 1.085 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.101. Data: 44 Al Taee games / 44 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 52% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Al Shabab 4.00. Al Taee hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taee are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Shabab (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taee if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 40% | Al Shabab 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 52% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Taee 1.91 / Al Shabab 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.191 / def 1.065 | Al Shabab attack 1.085 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al Shabab xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Taee vs Al Shabab kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 27 January 2023 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Al Taee 1 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Taee vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Taee vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 52% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Taee and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Shabab?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taee 0W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al Taee and Al Shabab in?
Al Taee (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Taee's attack rating (1.19) and Al Shabab's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.08x) against Al Taee's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.37
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Al Taee xG
Total xG
3.19
1.27
Al Shabab xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
4%
27.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.27 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Al Taee have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 17W 4D 23L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 23W 14D 7L from 44 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taee.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Taee have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (11W 3D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 9W 7D 5L from 21 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taee are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.80 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 17W 4D 23L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 23W 14D 7L in their last 44 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Taee's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.71 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 4-0 on 8 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Taee
2
Draws
4
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Shabab?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 0, Al Shabab have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Al Taee 0-0 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 57%, Al Shabab 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al Taee and 57% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al Taee's games and 62% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al Taee's matches and 57% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al Taee and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Shabab defy the odds to beat Al Taee 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Taee 1-2 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.91 xG and Al Shabab 1.27 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Taee fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.19 / defence 1.06 against Al Shabab attack 1.08 / defence 1.13, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 52% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 25%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Al Shabab win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 57%, Al Shabab 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.