Al Taee 2-2 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Al Taee welcome Al-Raed to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 5 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taee — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's home record at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al Taee are significantly better at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Raed — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Raed 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Al Taee winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Taee trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Raed trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 47% versus Al-Raed 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 59% | Al-Raed 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.28 xG and Al-Raed 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.015 / defence 1.058 | Al-Raed attack 1.003 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.357. Data: 51 Al Taee games / 51 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 33% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Raed 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Taee 40% | Al-Raed 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 33% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Taee 1.28 / Al-Raed 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.015 / def 1.058 | Al-Raed attack 1.003 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Al-Raed xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Raed kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 5 April 2023 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Raed?
Al Taee 2 - 2 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 33% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Raed?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taee 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Raed in?
Al Taee (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Taee's attack at 1.01x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
33%
3.05
27%
3.71
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.72
1.44
Al-Raed xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.85
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.44 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taee come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 6D 26L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.20 PPG from 51 outings (17W 10D 24L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taee on 1.24 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Taee's home form reads 12W 3D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (7W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taee are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.22 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 19W 6D 26L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 17W 10D 24L in their last 51 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Taee's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.56 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taee and Al-Raed runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Al-Raed won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taee's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Taee
3
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Raed?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 2, Al-Raed have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Al-Raed 1-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Raed?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 56%, Al-Raed 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al Taee and 68% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Raed in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al Taee's recent matches and 52% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al Taee's matches and 68% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taee and Al-Raed share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Al Taee and Al-Raed drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.28 xG and Al-Raed 1.44 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against Al-Raed attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 33% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 40%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 59%, Al-Raed 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.24 PPG, Al-Raed 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.