Al Taee 0-2 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taee host Al-Nassr at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 16 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taee — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Taee at 1.60 PPG versus Al-Nassr's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Nassr 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Taee trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Nassr trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 50% versus Al-Nassr 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 61% | Al-Nassr 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 0.97 xG and Al-Nassr 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.985 / defence 1.045 | Al-Nassr attack 1.229 / defence 0.658. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.228. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.658 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.229 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Al Taee games / 56 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 23% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 51%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Nassr 1.96. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 60% | Al-Nassr 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 23% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Taee 0.97 / Al-Nassr 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.985 / def 1.045 | Al-Nassr attack 1.229 / def 0.658 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Al-Nassr xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 16 May 2023 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Al Taee 0 - 2 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 23% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Nassr?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taee 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 2W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Nassr in?
Al Taee (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Taee's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
23%
4.34
26%
3.89
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.55
1.58
Al-Nassr xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
5%
21.02
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.58 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taee come into this having played 56 games, going 21W 8D 27L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.11 PPG from 56 outings (36W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Al Taee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Taee's home form reads 14W 4D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 1.89 points per game from 28 outings (16W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Al Taee are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.00 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 21W 8D 27L in their last 56 games (1.27 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 36W 10D 10L in their last 56 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.64 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taee and Al-Nassr runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Al-Nassr won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taee's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Taee
0
Draws
5
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Nassr?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Al-Nassr 5-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 57%, Al-Nassr 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al Taee and 57% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al Taee's recent matches and 36% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al Taee's matches and 57% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Taee 0-2 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 0.97 xG and Al-Nassr 1.58 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Taee fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Al-Nassr attack 1.23 / defence 0.66, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 23% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 51%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 61%, Al-Nassr 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.