Al Taee 3-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taee at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Thursday 6 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Al Taee (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taee have posted 5W 3D 2L at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 0.80 PPG across 5 Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 3L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Al Taee's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Al Taee half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Taee 20% | Al Khaleej Saihat 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Taee 40% | Al Khaleej Saihat 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.58 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.069 / defence 0.782 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.776 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.042. Al Khaleej Saihat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Al Taee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al Taee's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Al Taee games / 5 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 60% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 15%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Al Khaleej Saihat 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al Taee (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taee at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 50% | Al Khaleej Saihat 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 60% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 37% | xG Al Taee 1.58 / Al Khaleej Saihat 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.069 / def 0.782 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.776 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
37%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 6 October 2022 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Taee 3 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 60% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Taee (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Taee's attack rating (1.07) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.78x) against Al Taee's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.01
15%
6.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.21
0.63
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
6.81
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
3%
33.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 10.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al Taee and 0.63 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taee's recent record stands at 3W 0D 2L from 5 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taee by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Khaleej Saihat heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taee are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taee have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 20%.
Defensively: Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Al Taee or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taee won 3-0 on 6 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Taee
2
Draws
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Al Taee 0-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Al Taee) and 20% (Al Khaleej Saihat) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Al Taee and 20% for Al Khaleej Saihat.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Khaleej Saihat in 40%; Al Taee have failed to score in 40% of games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al Taee's recent matches and 20% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al Taee's recent games and 20% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taee and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taee run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al Khaleej Saihat 3-0 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.58 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.63 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Taee beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.07 / defence 0.78 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.78 / defence 1.28, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 60% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 15%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 40%, Al Khaleej Saihat 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 20%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taee arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taee scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Al Khaleej Saihat shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.