Al Taee 3-1 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Baten at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Baten make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Al Taee (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium this season: 4W 0D 5L from 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Baten's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Baten's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Taee lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taee — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Al Baten — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 42% versus Al Baten 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 58% | Al Baten 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.25 xG and Al Baten 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.970 / defence 1.483 | Al Baten attack 0.782 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.169. Data: 19 Al Taee games / 19 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 34% | Draw 28% | Al Baten 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Al Baten 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Baten as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Baten if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 67% | Al Baten 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 34% | Draw 28% | Al Baten 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Taee 1.25 / Al Baten 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.970 / def 1.483 | Al Baten attack 0.782 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Al Baten (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Al Baten xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al Baten kick off?
Al Taee vs Al Baten kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al Baten?
Al Taee 3 - 1 Al Baten.
Where is Al Taee vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al Baten part of?
Al Taee vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 34% chance of winning, Al Baten a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Baten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Taee and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Baten?
Record (1 meetings): Al Taee 0W | Draws 1 | Al Baten 0W.
What form are Al Taee and Al Baten in?
Al Taee (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al Baten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Taee's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al Baten's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.78x) against Al Taee's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Baten Win
34%
2.98
28%
3.58
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.61
1.36
Al Baten xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.56
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.36 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Al Taee have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 1D 12L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Baten's form line: 4W 7D 8L from 19 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Al Taee against 1.00 for Al Baten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Taee have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (4W 0D 5L).
On the road, Al Baten have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taee are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.89 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 6W 1D 12L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al Baten away?
Al Taee's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.33 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taee won 4-0 on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Taee
1
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 2, Al Baten have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2023, when Al Baten 4-3 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al Baten?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 67%, Al Baten 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Al Taee) and 33% (Al Baten). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Baten in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al Baten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Taee's games and 44% of Al Baten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al Taee's matches and 33% of Al Baten's.
Do Al Taee and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taee cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al Baten 3-1 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.25 xG and Al Baten 1.36 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Taee beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.97 / defence 1.48 against Al Baten attack 0.78 / defence 1.17, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 34% | Draw 28% | Al Baten 38%, with Al Baten to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al Taee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 58%, Al Baten 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Al Baten's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.00 PPG, Al Baten 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Al Baten (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.