Al Taee 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taee host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 21 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taee — All Games: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taee's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 games at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 1W 5D 2L from 8 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Taee 1.00 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Al Taee trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 43% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Taee 43% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.31 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.901 / defence 1.395 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.701 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.147. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Al Taee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Al Taee games / 8 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 38% | Draw 34% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taee as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taee offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 67% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 38% | Draw 34% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Al Taee 1.31 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.901 / def 1.395 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.701 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 21 October 2021 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Taee 1 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 38% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Taee (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 1W-5D-2L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Taee's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
38%
2.66
34%
2.95
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.43
1.12
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.66
38%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
8%
13.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.12 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taee come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 1D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taee on 1.00 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Taee's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taee are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al Taee's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taee's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Taee
0
Draws
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Al Taee 1-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 67%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Al Taee and 0% for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
On the defensive side: Al Taee have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al Taee's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Taee's recent games and 0% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taee and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ahli Jeddah defy the odds to beat Al Taee 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taee 1-2 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.31 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.12 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.90 / defence 1.40 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.70 / defence 1.26, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 38% | Draw 34% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 29%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al-Ahli Jeddah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 43%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.00 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.