Al Taawon 4-3 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 38%, yet in-form Al Taawon provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Taawon vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Raed to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 24 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taawon — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 2W 4D 4L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al Taawon have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Al-Raed have managed just 1 wins.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Al Taawon winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Taawon and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 45% versus Al-Raed 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 37% | Al-Raed 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.46 xG and Al-Raed 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.835 / defence 0.997 | Al-Raed attack 1.115 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.353. Data: 62 Al Taawon games / 62 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Raed 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Taawon (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 50% | Al-Raed 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Taawon 1.46 / Al-Raed 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.835 / def 0.997 | Al-Raed attack 1.115 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al-Raed xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Raed kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 24 April 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Al Taawon 4 - 3 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 36% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Raed?
Record (7 meetings): Al Taawon 5W | Draws 1 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Raed in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.83x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
36%
2.76
25%
3.94
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.96
1.50
Al-Raed xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.44
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.50 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon come into this having played 62 games, going 26W 19D 17L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 0.94 PPG from 62 outings (15W 13D 34L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Taawon's home form reads 14W 8D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 1.00 points per game from 31 outings (8W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.19 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Current Season
Al-Raed
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 26W 19D 17L in their last 62 games (1.56 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 15W 13D 34L in their last 62 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.61 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Taawon have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al Taawon
1
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 6, Al-Raed have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Al Taawon 4-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Raed?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 48%, Al-Raed 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Al Taawon) and 58% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al-Raed in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 58% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Al Taawon's recent games and 58% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taawon defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Raed 4-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.46 xG and Al-Raed 1.50 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against Al-Raed attack 1.11 / defence 1.20, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 38%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 37%, Al-Raed 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Raed's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.